ASML
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ASML Owns the Machines that make AI Chips
ASML is the only company that makes the machines chipmakers need to build the fastest, and most advanced processors.
Bull case for ASML
100% EUV market share
No alternative exists; ASML sets prices as demand rises.
€33 billion order backlog locked
Revenue visibility extends through 2026 regardless of cycle.
AI capex flowing to tools
Foundry spending translates directly into EUV demand growth.
Bear case for ASML
China revenue exposure narrowing
Export bans could cut 29% of sales permanently.
High-NA adoption delayed years
TSMC waits until 2029; growth and margins stall.
Capex cuts during downturns
Chipmakers postpone orders fast when demand softens.