Alstom (ALO · EURONEXT)
Realise the Power of Rail
Alstom builds the trains, metros and signalling systems that public transport authorities buy once and then pay for decades to maintain.
Bull case for Alstom
Signed orders give years of revenue visibility
A backlog above one hundred billion euros means most future revenue is already contracted.
Maintenance contracts run for decades
Servicing fleets it built produces steadier, longer-lasting income than one-off train sales.
Only a handful of firms can bid
Building and certifying trains at scale limits competition to a very small group.
Bear case for Alstom
Big rolling stock projects keep missing margins
Problem contracts on new train platforms have repeatedly held group profitability below plan.
Cash arrives years after the work
Customer down payments come early, then Alstom funds production long before final payments.
Public budgets and politics decide demand
Almost every customer is a state operator, so spending choices sit with governments.