Ceres Power (CWR · LSE)
Licensing fuel cell tech as AI demands explode power
Ceres Power earns royalties from partners who manufacture its fuel cell systems. Mass production has started. Data centres need reliable power now, and the licensing model scales without capital risk or factory debt.
Bull case for Ceres Power
Licensing model delivers 79% gross margins without manufacturing risk
Partners fund manufacturing, Ceres collects royalties with no capex or debt.
Doosan launched mass production in July, triggering first royalty stream
First commercial factory live, Delta building next, Weichai licensed, royalties begin flowing.
Data centres face 35GW power shortage that fuel cells solve faster than grid expansion
Grid can't expand fast enough, fuel cells deploy faster than transmission.
Bear case for Ceres Power
Doosan secured only one small contract in four months post-launch
Only one 9MW contract sold post-launch, royalty income may disappoint badly.
Bloom Energy controls 44% market share
Established players control market, partners lack pricing power and proven sales.
Partner concentration creates revenue cliff risk
Bosch exited with zero revenue, few partners control all income.