IREN (IREN · NASDAQ)
Former Bitcoin Miner Owns the Power AI Companies Need
IREN controls cheap renewable energy and data centers, signing a $9.7 billion Microsoft deal to rent GPU capacity while Bitcoin mining funds the buildout.
Bull case for IREN
Microsoft guarantees $1.9 billion every year
Five-year contract guarantees recurring revenue with 85% margins and prepayment upfront.
Texas energy costs one-third the industry average
Owned renewable energy creates margin advantage and flexibility to arbitrage between mining and AI.
GPU fleet expands from 23,000 to 140,000 chips
Early capacity secures pricing power as enterprise AI demand outpaces new data center supply.
Bear case for IREN
Microsoft terminates if delivery slips
Contract termination clause voids deal if infrastructure delivery misses 2026 timeline.
Bitcoin still generates 95% of cash
Earnings vulnerable to Bitcoin crashes until AI revenue scales in late 2026.
GPU oversupply collapses rental pricing by 2027
Accelerated chip production or cooling AI demand compresses rental rates by 2027.