easyJet (EZJ · LSE)
Sky's The Limit
Flying towards growth through holidays, fleet upgrades, and solid execution
Bull case for easyJet
Franchise value & capital allocation are underappreciated
The valuable airport slots it controls and the routes it flies, combined with the ability to optimise capital allocation to the right routes is a differentiator
Fleet upgrade to drive seat profit uplift
The plane fleet upgrade expected to roll-out between now and 2028 is EZJ's biggest lever to create significant value.
Holiday business to drive significant growth
The complementary business of offering holiday packages to its captive airline passenger base has really taken off and is expected to expand substantially from here.
Bear case for easyJet
Cyclical Nature of the Industry
The airline industry is highly sensitive to economic downturns, fuel price shocks and geopolitical instability
Delayed airplane delivery risk
Airbus, the manufacturer for EZJ's 320/321neo new plane orders, is experiencing delivery delays to all its customers
Balance sheet could be stretched to fund eventual capex ramp
Not an immediate issue but could become more challenging for easyJet in 2027 and 2028 when capex needs rise in conjunction with a substantial increase in new aircraft deliveries
